Low Water Supply Predicted for Spring and Summer
Final Snow Survey Report for 2007 Released

Contact: Renee Bodine (602) 280-8778
or George Couch (602) 280-8806   

PHOENIX, April 3, 2007 -With the overall snowpack accumulation in Arizona 80 percent below average and the melt-out a month ahead of schedule, firefighters are preparing for an early fire season and water managers should plan for half of the normal stream flows for spring and summer uses.

The final snow surveys for the 2007 water year concluded with release of the April 1 Arizona Basin Outlook Report. USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service operates the snow survey program with help from its cooperative snow surveyors. A water year encompasses the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is used as a basis for hydrologic data.

“This season two huge winter storms swept east of our water-producing mountain watersheds leaving the state with less snowfall than we had hoped for, especially following a winter like 2006 which was exceptionally dry,” said Larry Martinez, NRCS water supply specialist for Arizona. Instead, the storms blanketed portions of New Mexico and the front range of Colorado with heavy snowfall. While January and February were the most productive months in terms of snowfall for Arizona, the El Nino predicted for the winter fizzled out in March leaving the state relatively dry.

Runoff volumes for the April-May forecast period are expected to be 26 percent of median in the Salt River; 46 percent in the Verde River; and 17 percent for Tonto Creek. Forecasts call for 72 percent of median flows in the San Francisco River at Clifton, Arizona. The Gila River is forecast to run 71 percent of median at the head of Safford Valley. The Little Colorado River is forecast to run at 31 percent of median to Lyman Lake. At the Colorado River, inflow to Lake Powell is forecast at 50 percent of average for the forecast period April-July, typically the time of year when the greatest flows occur in the river from snowmelt.

This is not good news either for those who reside in the urban-wildland interface, a focal point of concern for interagency fire management officials. As the public moves into areas that are near forests and open lands, drought elevates the risk of wildfires that threaten the safety of people and property.

“If conditions stay the same as we are experiencing now, then conditions will be set up for an early and possibly severe fire season,” said Dave Reisner, a cooperative snow surveyor and district fire management officer at the U.S. Forest Service Lakeside Ranger District. “From conversations I have had with other fire management officers on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest, the snowpack has been spotty at higher elevations. So above 7,500 feet we may be looking at a half to one month early fire season. At elevations below 7,500 feet, the fire season is expected to be a month and a half earlier than usual,” said Reisner.

The entire northwest area of the state is extremely dry. The Grand Canyon National Park has been so dry that a driver could travel from Jacob Lake to the north rim lodge most of last winter; a highway that is usually closed until spring because of heavy snow.

“This winter snowfall conditions were slightly better than last year on the north and south rim, but not by much. Monitored data provided by Park rangers show snowpacks were very low all winter long, with both snow courses nearly melted out at this time, which is unusual for the north rim. I suspect the vegetation will dry early as the temperature soars and the spring winds deplete the soil of moisture over the next three months,” said Martinez.

Tony Haffer, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Phoenix, Arizona, agrees. “Virtually all of Arizona received below average precipitation last year. In addition, the same can be said for most of the last decade as well.” Haffer said that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center’s Outlook for the next three months indicates temperatures will be above average across the entire state. Additionally, the CPC Precipitation Outlook shows precipitation will be near to below average statewide during the 90-day period, although April through June is typically a very dry period for Arizona every year. “With warmer than average temperatures coupled with below average precipitation expected during the coming months, it’s safe to say drought conditions will not only expand across the state, but also become worse in those areas already impacted by the drought,” Haffer said.

District Conservationist Kresta Faaborg and Rangeland Management Specialist Bob Adams at the NRCS Prescott Valley field office said they have noticed that stock tanks are only partly full with water and estimate that storage may be depleted by May without additional runoff. Faaborg and Adams also reported a significant reduction in spring forage production from annual grasses and forbs due to poor soil moisture conditions.

As the drought intensifies, Susan Craig, Arizona Department of Water Resources' Community Water Planning Manager, said the state is helping communities form locally-run drought planning groups to assist with statewide drought preparedness efforts. “Local Drought Impact Groups coordinate drought public awareness, assess drought monitoring needs, provide drought impact assessment information to local and state leaders, and implement local mitigation and response options,” she said. These groups are coordinated by local representatives of Arizona Cooperative Extension Service and County Emergency Management officials and supported by ADWR's Statewide Drought Program. Some counties have groups that are up and running and some counties will be forming them this year. To find out more information about a local group in your area, please visit: http://www.azwater.gov/dwr/drought/LDIG.html or contact Evelyn Erlandsen at 602.771.8441.

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